The College Football Playoff kicks off Friday night (8pm ET) with Alabama traveling to Norman to face Oklahoma in a rematch from just a month ago. That game went the Sooners’ way thanks to a defensive touchdown and timely fourth-quarter stops. Alabama may have looked like the better team for stretches, but Oklahoma walked out of Bryant-Denny with the W and eventually, a playoff ticket.

Over the last month, Oklahoma has simply looked like the better football team. The Sooners are defense-first, ranking 5th against the run and 7th in points allowed, with 10 takeaways over their last four games. The offense won’t scare anyone, but Mateer has made enough plays with his legs and arm as well as avoided mistakes and that has been enough.

Alabama, on the other hand, limped into the playoff. A home loss to Oklahoma, a last-minute escape against Auburn, and a woodshed beatdown by Georgia ended Ty Simpson’s Heisman buzz and raised serious questions about this team’s ability to win it all. How Alabama made the playoff is still a mystery to me, but here we are and Notre Dame is already ice fishing.

The market has this game priced basically at a pick’em, Alabama -1 with a total around 40.5 (check the Golden Camel app, you will find a half point whichever way you are leaning). I almost never bet unders, but this one is hard to ignore. Both defenses are legit, neither offense has impressed lately, and playoff games tend to tighten up before they open up.

Best bet: Under 40.5

Defense is what got Oklahoma here, and they’ll need another strong showing if they want a date with the top-ranked Hoosiers in the Rose Bowl (still feels weird to type that).
That said… I’ll probably still bet the over at some point, because self-control has never been my strongest trait.

Before kickoff, make sure you’re locked into the Golden Camel App to find the best number on Alabama–Oklahoma across every major sportsbook. Whether you’re hunting a key half-point on the total or tracking late line movement, Golden Camel does the shopping for you. And if you missed it, check out our CFP First Round Breakdown & Best Bets for full-card analysis and postseason trends to help you attack the entire playoff slate.