Monday, January 12, 2026 — 2025 NFL Playoffs

The final game of Wild Card weekend is usually the one that messes with your head the most, and this year is no different.

On paper, this game feels obvious. The Houston Texans are the better team. They’re faster, more explosive, and more balanced on both sides of the ball. If this game were played on a neutral field at 1:00 PM, I don’t think we’d be having much of a debate.

But of course, it’s not.

Texans at Steelers

Monday Night Playoff Football — Pittsburgh

Houston comes into this game playing confident, efficient football. They don’t beat themselves, they capitalize on mistakes, and when they get a lead, they know how to keep their foot on the gas. This is a team that looks built for more than just one playoff win.

That’s why I love the Texans in this spot.

And yet… there’s just enough here to give me pause.

Aaron Rodgers is on the other sideline. It’s prime time, on a Monday night, in Pittsburgh, with one of the most hostile playoff environments in the league. This is exactly the kind of spot where logic sometimes goes out the window and weird things happen.

Rodgers doesn’t need to dominate, he just needs to hang around long enough for one or two momentum-swinging moments. And history tells us those moments tend to show up in games like this.

Still, I can’t ignore what I see. Houston is simply the better football team, and more often than not, talent and execution win out, even in tough environments.

Best Bet

Texans -3

I’m trusting the team that’s been more consistent all season. I fully acknowledge the danger of the spot, but I’m not overthinking it. Houston should win this game, and they should cover.

Just don’t be surprised if it’s uncomfortable for longer than you’d like.

Final Thoughts

This is the classic playoff dilemma:
Trust the better team or fear the moment.

I’ll take the Texans and live with the result.

Good luck!

Before you lock in your Monday night play, make sure you’re using the Golden Camel App to compare odds across sportsbooks and grab the best possible number — in playoff games like this, even a half-point matters. And if you missed it, check out our NFL Wild Card Sunday Preview & Best Bets for the rest of the weekend card, plus the picks I’m most confident in heading into the final game.